The political and constitutional crisis that developed after last June’s parliamentary elections is now officially the longest period that a government has failed to be formed in Belgium’s history. To date, the main political parties have not been able to reach agreement on forming a coalition administration.
On 7 November, the crisis was enhanced by a vote in the Federal Chamber’s Commission of Internal Affairs, when Flemish-community MPs used, for the first time in history, their majority to force a decision onto the French-speaking community. With only one Flemish MP abstaining (a Brussels MP for the Green Party) the Commission voted in favour of splitting the electoral and legal district of Brussels-Halle-Vilvoorde (BHV). This is highly symbolic, as BHV is the only mixed Flemish-Francophone district and a split would mean that French speakers living in Halle-Vilvoorde lose their language facilities (e.g. getting official documents in French). Also, it would no longer be possible for them to vote for the French speaking parties participating in Brussels’ political life. The French speaking community has now used one of the defence mechanisms granted by the Constitution, the “conflict of interest”, to force a new round of negotiations on all language communities, and to block every decision on the issue for 60 days, during which such negotiations have to take place.
Strangely enough, this new escalation has made some of the political commentators more optimistic on the question of the formation of a “Blue-Orange” national coalition (a coalition of the “orange” Christian and “blue” liberal parties). It has put, for at least a few months, the most difficult, symbolic issue of BHV into a different ‘forum’ that can allow the talks on forming a government to continue separately. They think it will now be possible to form a right wing government, which, by necessity, will have to postpone any state reform until after the regional elections in 2009. It does seem very difficult to imagine the French speaking politicians making real concessions on the BHV issue after the Flemish ‘community’ vote in the Chamber Commission. Immediately afterwards, the King restated his confidence in Leterme (leader of the Flemish Christian CD&V) continuing to head the talks on forming a government. But the monarch also stated that everything related to gaining the necessary two thirds parliamentary majority needed on constitutional issues will be passed off to a “committee of wise people”, which will try and prepare a compromise for after the regional elections in 2009.
Other commentators point to the fact that the CD&V (the CD&V, the Flemish Christian democrat party, which is in a “cartel” (alliance) with the N-VA Flemish nationalists), still want a state reform, as they want something to show their voters. They see the formation of a government with a “limited” mandate, i.e. with only a socio-economic agenda, as a defeat for the Flemish parties. They stated that compared to “a big state reform” – moving important responsibilities to the regions and the communities – a split of BHV would seem rather feeble.
Even though it is true that CD&V would count for a lot less without the N-VA Flemish nationalists, this still does not mean that this alliance could not break up with, hopefully for the CD&V, some N-VA senators joining them for careerist reasons. To form a government, the Flemish nationalists have to be prepared to make a compromise – this is Belgium after all! It became very clear over the last weeks that the “old generation” CVP leaders have major problems with both their alliance partner and the present CD&V leadership and were pushing towards a Belgian-style compromise. Events are developing quickly and further acceleration can now take place, at any given moment. A compromise is being sought and once it is won the N-VA Flemish nationalists will have to show its loyalty to the CD&V or be prepared to go their own way.
Pressure to get to form government, any kind of government, increases every day. Bad economic news is on the agenda: predicting an economic slowdown in 2008; budgetary projections showing a deficit for the 2007 budget of about 1.5 billion euro (and another projection showing between 3 and 4 billion euro for 2008), plus panic over pensions. In the end, a ‘solution’ will be found: most likely a government with a limited agenda, focusing on social and economic issues, in the form of a “normal” Orange-Blue government or even going down the road of a partially “technocratic” government, a classical tripartite formation that would force at least some of the social democrats back into government. The Belgian ruling class may be in a muddle, but they have shown themselves throughout history as inventive and creative, up to a point, when needed.
In the meantime, the unrest and insecurity whipped up by this impasse lead to all sorts of manifestations of people speaking out against the nationalism of the main Flemish parties. Brussels, and its immediate periphery, is now suddenly full of Belgian flags and companies producing flags have difficulties meeting a peak in demand. Petitions are circulating. Students of VUB and ULB (respectively, the Flemish and French speaking universities of Brussels) held ‘pillow fights’, to show how ridiculous they found the nationalist arguments. Many “jokes” are circulating about the constitutional crisis, with comedians having fun about the chaos. New websites commenting on the issues have sprung up; including “split Bart de Wever nu” (De Wever is the president of the N-VA Flemish nationalists, which came from a split in the BHV). Sections of the ruling class declare their ‘love’ for Belgium – it is, after all, a state which always gives them what they want.